Newsletter - 11 January 2008
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The Latest On Your Daily Greyhound Tips Service |
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11 January 2008
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Dear Greyhound Racing Fan,
2008 promises to be an interesting year with the heightened interest
in greyhound racing and greyhound welfare. Over the festive period at
GreyhoundPredictions.co.uk
we have been busy upgrading our automated system for greyhound
picks. Regular visitors will have noticed that in the prediction we
now include the age of the greyhound in months. We have been
experimenting for some time with plugging three holes in our
prediction strategy. Namely to take into account the age of the
greyhounds, bitches season and the dogs preferred track position
against the trap he is drawn in.
Greyhounds Age, Bitches Seasons and Race Remarks
Research has shown that greyhounds reach their peak at around 36
months of age. We would like to take into account a young dog that is
improving and an older dog that might have reached its peak. Also it
is believed that a bitch should return to her previous form at around
4 months after she came into season. The tips should give
consideration to a bitches results when she is not back to racing
fitness. Finally any serious greyhound racing punter will study the
remarks for a dogs previous races i.e. a slow time for a dog that
was unduly hampered in a race should not reflect badly on the
prediction for his next run.
It has not been clear so far how these variables will be included in
our automated picks. The approach we are trialling is to add a
handicap to a dog for being outside of a preferred age range and to
handicap bitches that are racing before the 4 months return to form
period. The time for a race where a dog was not allowed a clear run
is being adjusted back towards the dogs average time. We are
currently comparing the results of predictions that include these
handicaps with the current solely form based predictions.
Until we can find a reliable way of including these factors our tips
will be based solely on a greyhounds prior form. We will add the
season and remarks to the predictions to allow visitors to take these
factors into account. If there are other information you would like to
see included please leave us a message in the forum.
Results for the Last Month
We have also been working on a system to determine which venue has
the best value in our system. This works by calculating the profit of
the nave bet on the dog predicted 1st. Even though this seriously NOT
recommended in practise we can use it as a valuable statistic to see
where there may be value and areas for improvement. Although in its
infancy we can see currently the most reliable venue is Walthamstow
with 7 out of 31 races the number 1 prediction winning giving a
profit of 0.80 for 1 bets. The worst course has been found to be
Oxford with only 5 winners out of 50 races (this may have been due to
this being the venue that we have tested new theories out on first).
When we have ironed out the bugs with these stats we will publish
them on the website.
Laying Greyhounds
We have had interest in emails from users looking at utilising the
predictions for lay bets on betting exchanges. As always we advise
caution and remind visitors that these tips are very much still a
work in progress. Apparently it has been found that there is consider
liquidity in the markets in the short time before the race begins. A
venue that appears to feature regularly on Betfair is Wimbledon so
we will investigate adding this to our tips.
That's all for now.
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